In 2050, Italy will be a smaller and more solitary country. According to the new Istat estimates (National Statistical Office), updated to 2024, the residents will decrease from the current 59 million to 54.7 million, with a loss of 4.3 million people.

But it's not just a matter of numbers: single-person households will increase from the current 36.8% to 41.1%, while the average number of members per household will decrease from 2.21 to 2.03.

An aging country

Italy in 2050 will have a third of the population over 65 years old: from today's 24.3% to 34.6%.

The working-age group (15-64 years) will plummet from 37.4 to 29.7 million individuals, with significant consequences on the labor market, pension system, and public health.

And by 2080, the scenario is even grimmer: the population could drop to 45.8 million.

The causes of the decline

The demographic decline is not a surprise: the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman has not been reached since 1976, and the birth rate continues to fall.

Istat reports a "self-reinforcement" of aging, due to low birth rates, increased longevity, and family transformations.

Even immigration, which for decades compensated for the decline in births, can no longer reverse the trend.

South in distress, North more resilient

The phenomenon will not affect the country uniformly. In the short term, the North will see a slight population increase (+1.1% annually until 2030), while the Center will lose 1.3%, and the South will experience a collapse of 4.8%.

Between 2030 and 2050, the decline will become widespread, but the South will pay the highest price.

Families with children increasingly rare

Today, families with children represent 28.6% of the total. By mid-century, they will drop to 21.4%, less than two in ten. According to Istat, the increase in single-person households is mainly linked to population aging and marital instability, with more separations and divorces.